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• これが真実
• 2022/03/17 (Thu) 01:34
• Report

Trump has avoided wars despite provocative statements

Because wide shows have presented Trump as if he were a "rare animal," he has become associated with the image of a "dangerous man" who spreads hate and fake news. However, the hard fact is that in the four years that he has been in office, he has "not let the United States start any new wars.

"There are plans for devastating military action against North Korea."
"If Iran attacks American citizens or any target, the United States will immediately and fully counterattack. There may be a counterattack in an unworthy manner."

Such aggressive ・ and provocative statements and tweets often lead people to believe that they are really launching an attack, but in fact, they have a track record of avoiding war at the last minute and getting their opponents to the negotiating table.

For example, the Japanese are familiar with his negotiations with North Korea. Trump has declared that he will "completely destroy North Korea," and he has called Kim Jong-un a "little rocket man" and a "madman with nuclear weapons" as he likes. Kim responded by saying, "I will surely punish the U.S. boorishness with fire," and actually launched a ballistic missile, causing tensions to rise to an all-time high. However, when the lid was opened, the historic U.S.-North Korea talks were realized, with Kim becoming the first U.S. president to visit North Korea. Trump was flip-flopping, praising Kim goofily, saying, "He's really smart, he's a great negotiator, and he's seeking to do the right thing. He seems to have built a relationship with Kim to the point that he said he has been in touch with him since he left office.

Of course, some may point out that this is nothing more than a "political performance. But on the other hand, we know that the Hanoi summit in February 2019 "was one step closer to an agreement" （ NHK Commentator's Office, June 11, 2021 ） although it was reported at the time that the meeting ended in a disagreement over the disposal of nuclear facilities and other issues.

"We have no intention of meeting with Kim Jong Il unless there is progress in working-level talks," and compared to the Biden administration, which has made no progress at all in talks with North Korea and has been hit by missiles, it can be seen as making considerable efforts to ease tensions, far more so.

• これが真実
• 2022/03/17 (Thu) 01:35
• Report

● The Trump Era: From "World War III Crisis" to "Middle East Peace"

This approach of Trump to provoke his opponents while negotiating with them is evident from the "World War III crisis" caused by the conflict with Iran from 2018.

Tensions between the two countries, which began when the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, slowly escalated as the Iranians shot down a U.S. Global Hawk drone and President Trump approved an attack in retaliation, only to call it off shortly before it was due to happen. Then, in January 2020, tensions worsened when the U.S. killed a commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. WWIII," "worldwar3," "Iran," and "Trump" successively topped Twitter trends around the world.

However, war was avoided just in time here, too. On the contrary, Trump, who has curbed the Shiite expansionist line in this conflict, has paved the way for a new "Middle East peace" that no one has been able to achieve before, with Israel establishing diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates （ UAE ） and four other countries.

The debate over whether this policy is right or wrong is set aside here.

What the author wishes to emphasize here is that in the Middle East, where there have been repeated conflicts and wars throughout the long history of the region, he has managed to reach his desired outcome while raising tensions so much and skillfully avoiding war.

Although he is underrated because of that kind of character, the argument that "if Trump had been president, we wouldn't have had this war" is spoken with a certain amount of conviction by many people because Trump is, as he has said himself, a "deal （ deal ） because there is indeed a part of him that is "a genius at dealing.

So the next question would be why "Trump-style negotiating" might have stopped the Russian invasion.
● With no Trump, no enemies, President Putin has the game

Often referred to as the "Madman ・ Theory" （ ） translated as the "madman theory".

It is the practice of making outlandish statements or decisions like a "madman" in order to get the negotiating party to concede or compromise. According to psychologists and others, not only Trump, but also Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin are users of this madman ・ theory.

The reason why the Madman ・ Theory is so effective in negotiations when tensions between nations are high is that it prevents the other party from reading your "next move".

For example, leaders of countries that are in conflict with the U.S. are negotiating with their own intelligence agencies, etc., while frantically analyzing ・ and predicting, in cooperation with their own intelligence agencies, what the next move of the U.S. president will be and what sanctions he will impose based on the decision they have made.

However, this approach does not work with Trump, who has been issuing a series of insane messages on Twitter, including "I will attack" without hesitation, and retracting his previous statements. There is also the fear that he will forget himself in anger and push the nuclear button. In short, we have no idea what they are thinking. As a negotiating partner, there is no one more difficult to deal with. That is why, some experts say, Vladimir Putin has been quiet while Trump has been president. So, conversely, what kind of partner is easier to negotiate with or give to? Trump, in other words, is the "exact opposite" of a madman. He does not say or do anything that would raise the eyebrows of the international community, and once he says something, he takes responsibility and firmly keeps his word. With responsibility and awareness as a leader of a country, he cooperates ・ with the international community and works together to solve problems. He is such a "common sense, rational and good person".

Now that I've said all that, I think you get the idea. Yes, that's exactly what President Biden is. Even if Trump says that he will not intervene in Ukraine, he may immediately reverse his statement and say that he will deploy troops to Ukraine, depending on his mood. After all, he has even stirred up riots in his own country. But that is not likely to happen with Mr. Biden. When he says he will not intervene militarily, he is doing what he says he will do, and he is sitting on the sidelines, calling for economic sanctions and so on.

With that absolute "trust," President Putin can safely prolong this war.

Moreover, thankfully, the Western media and the CIA are all treating Vladimir Putin as a "madman" who is "incapable of normal judgment," and recently there has even been news that he may have Alzheimer's disease. Recently, there have even been news reports that he may have Alzheimer's disease. There is nothing more frightening in war than an enemy who cannot read your "next move. The U.S. and Europe have completely lost control of the game to Vladimir Putin.

To quote Mr. Inui's words in his column, ＜ "Common sense people" cannot （ confront ） the leaders of China and Russia, who are entrenched in imperialistic thinking ＞.

• これが真実
• 2022/03/17 (Thu) 01:36
• Report

Can the "Common Sense Cabinet" face the Chinese threat

"That kind of thinking leads to war. ！ Many people may argue that only a sensible and rational leader can bring about real peace. However, it is clear from the history of our nation's security that such a severe reality exists in international politics. In September 2010, a Chinese fishing boat violated Japan's territorial waters and collided with a Japan Coast Guard patrol vessel. Although Chinese-registered vessels had entered Japan's territorial waters in the past, this was the first time they had taken such an aggressive stance, and tensions in Japan-China relations rose to an all-time high.

Two months later, in November, Russian President Medvedev （ at the time ） landed on Kunashiri Island, and then again in July 2012 after becoming prime minister. This is the first time that a Russian leader has visited the four northern islands. Perhaps inspired by this, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak also landed on Takeshima. This was also the first time for a South Korean president to do so.

Why did neighboring countries "invade" Japan's territorial ・ waters one after another at this time? Various reasons can be considered, one of which is the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) administration that took office in September 2009.

As you know, many people in this party, including Yukio Hatoyama, the first prime minister of the DPJ, with his "fraternal" policies, were as "liberal" as President Biden. They were a group of rational "common sense people" who did not talk about stirring up divisions and conflicts like Mr. Trump, but rather said that conflicts between nations should be resolved through firm discussions in cooperation with the international community.

That, in turn, meant that they were people whose "next move" was easy to read from the perspective of leaders of neighboring countries whose interests might conflict. ・It is easy to imagine that if a country violates the territorial waters of another country, that country will retaliate with "protests" or "economic sanctions," which are common sense retaliation. In this case, it would be natural for Japan to "invade" its territorial ・ waters in order to satisfy the nationalism of its own people and to consolidate its power.

Currently, Japan's leader, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is being actively promoted as a "good guy" by the media. He is known as a "common sense man" who is quite liberal for an LDP member, gets along well with President Biden, and works with the international community. There is not a shred of Madman in him.

On the other hand, China is watching closely to see what the consequences of Putin's invasion will be. The recent invasion of Ukraine has shown the world the truth that the only way to invade another country is when there is no madman like Trump in the US. Then, from China's point of view, can we not conclude that it would be better to invade Taiwan by 2024, when a man of common sense is president? Will Japan's "common sense man's cabinet" be able to confront the Chinese threat then? Will Kishida just make a fuss about economic sanctions anyway, and if so, will he not further encourage the Senkakus? The tragedy of the recent invasion of Ukraine should serve as a lesson for us all to think carefully about national defense.

• これが真実
• 2022/03/17 (Thu) 01:40
• Report

Because of the way the wide media has presented Trump as if he were a "rare beast," he has become associated with the image of a "dangerous man" who spreads hate and fake news. However, it is an undeniable fact that during his four years in office, he has "not brought a new war to the United States.

• これが真実
• 2022/03/17 (Thu) 01:44
• Report

I thought the person who wrote this article was awesome.